Reading Market Regimes

Understand BitPredict's four-state AI regime system and how to use regime data to make better strategy decisions.

Market regime detection is one of BitPredict's core capabilities. Every bar in the system carries an AI-generated regime label and a full probability breakdown. Understanding how to read and use this data will significantly improve your strategy selection and timing decisions.

Visit Data → Market Regimes

This page shows the current regime state for each symbol, a confidence score, the full probability breakdown (bull/bear/range/transition scores), and a transition history calendar.

Understand the four regime states

Bull: sustained upward price trend, strong momentum.
Bear: sustained downward trend.
Range: price oscillating within a band with no clear trend.
Transition: the model detects a regime change in progress — high uncertainty, avoid high-leverage positions.

Read the confidence score

The confidence score (0–100%) reflects the model's certainty about the current regime classification. A score above 75% means strong consensus. Below 50% means the market is in an ambiguous state — treat signals from trend-following strategies with extra caution.

Interpret the probability breakdown

The four probability scores always sum to 100%. If Bull = 65%, Bear = 5%, Range = 20%, Transition = 10%, the model is fairly confident about a bull regime but sees some ranging behaviour. Watch the Range and Transition scores — if they're rising, a regime shift may be coming.

Use the regime calendar

The transition history calendar shows which regime each day was classified as. Look for how frequently transitions occur for your symbol — some assets have very stable regimes (few transitions = easier for trend strategies) while others flip frequently (better for range strategies).

Filter strategies by regime

On the Strategies page, use the "Best Regime" filter to find strategies specifically optimised for the current market state. The Regime Champions leaderboard surfaces the top performers in the current regime.

Check the per-bar regime metadata

In the Data Explorer, each bar's tooltip shows its regime label plus secondary metadata: trend direction (up/down/sideways), volatility percentile (0–100), momentum score, trend strength Z-score, and transition pressure. High transition pressure = a regime shift is increasingly likely.

The single most useful habit is checking the current regime before assigning a strategy to a live account. A strategy with a great Sharpe ratio may only have earned those returns in bull conditions — if you're in a Range regime, you're likely to see much weaker performance or losses.

The Transition regime is the most dangerous for leveraged positions. The model has detected a change in market character but can't yet confirm the new state. Reduce position sizes or pause strategy execution during prolonged Transition periods.

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